Ed's Blog

"Some people know everything, but that's all they know."

THE COMING WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

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If anyone believes that the conflict between Islamic extremists and those they make war on isn’t going to result in a monumental conflict that will go down along with the great wars of history they are sadly mistaken.

The warning signs are all around us. The Islamic State, al-Qai’da, Boko Haram, Ansar Al-Shari’a , Al Nusra (a total of more than 30 groups on the State Department Terrorist list since 9/11/2001) are growing in strength and numbers. Daily atrocities in the territories they control and terrorist attacks in the areas they target are on the increase. When the Islamic State says “We will conquer Rome,” the don’t believe they are making an idle boast.

At the same time governments they target, most notably the United States, are doing what so many before them have done. They are failing to define and recognize the threat and do what’s necessary to defeat it before it gets completely out of hand. It’s only a matter of time before large-scale terrorist attacks take place in Europe and the United States, forcing the U.S. and its allies to react much as they did after 9/11/2001. This time however, it will become a multi-national conflagration that will take much longer than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Five, 10 or 50 years after every major war we look back in hindsight at the obvious things governments could have done to avoid the conflict or defeat the enemy before it got too strong; but then as now governments convince themselves the threat isn’t that great or they can handle it “when the time comes.”

Yes, the United States, the leader of the free world and the only government capable of providing leadership in the war against Islamic extremism, is war-weary after more than a decade of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now in Syria and Iraq. But that’s no excuse when the threat of exponentially greater loss of life and treasure is in the balance.

Experts can provide numerous scenarios that demonstrate how a war in the Middle East cold engulf the entire region, involve Iran and large numbers of U.S. ground forces. Given the United States has no grand strategy for how to defeat Islamic extremism, any one of these scenarios could easily play out.

It is now clear that nothing anyone says or does is likely to convince the Obama administration of the error of its ways. It will go right on pretending that fighting international terrorism is like fighting urban crime, calling 21 beheaded Egyptians “Egyptian citizens” instead of Egyptian Christians, and refusing to call Islamic terrorism Islamic extremism. How much further into the abyss we will fall before President Obama leaves office is difficult to predict. And if there is another major terrorist attack in the United States, don’t expect President Obama to behave any differently.

So what can Americans do in the meantime? Prepare yourself and your family for a national emergency. Express yourself loudly and clearly to you Representative in Congress and your Senator. And Make your concerns known to anyone who calls you conducting a public opinion survey. Most important, vote for the presidental candidate that you believe will do what’s necessary to defeat Islamic extremism and defend America in the future.

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Filed under: Terrorism, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2 Responses

  1. Bill Jordan says:

    This sounds more like an extermination is in order rather than a war…sounds like its also time for a coalition of the willing– the Arab states, this time. Egypt certainly made the right response, but I would suppose it was a galvanic reaction rather than a plan with an end state or even campaign plans.

    If we were diplomatically savvy perhaps we could arrange a coalition of secular Arab states–the UAE, Jordan, Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco, and some of the central Asian ‘stans (Uzbekistan and Tajikistan would probably participate if it meant adding modernization elements to their armed forces) and who ever is left standing in the Levant and the Balkans/Caucasus, along with, and certainly in a barely visible supporting role from the back row of the chorus, Israel.

    In terms of strategic vision this would potentially do much for the Palestinian issue in the future, as well as dampening some of the ire toward Israel from moderate Arab states. It wouldn’t do much with radical Arab states like Pakistan or iran, but then nothing much is going to matter to them anyway. But potentially it could be an effective disenfranchisement of them.

    We could gauge the reaction of uncertain states such as Indonesia and Malaysia (I remember their reluctance in the first Gulf War) and bring them along with quiet and gentle persuasion, or at least recognize their uncomfortable neutrality.

    Unfortunately diplomatically savvy we’re not, and we’ve managed to marginalize Israel so badly in the last administration plus this rapidly unraveling one that it would hardly be possible, I’d think.

    I do hope when the hammer drops it is thorough, violent and deadly with no thought of rebuilding the country in our image a’la Bush’s second Iraq War. Demonstrably we are better at waging war than restoring and maintaining tje peace, a skill we’ve apparently lost since the Marshall Plan and the post WWII constitution of Japan. However, that might be something the Arab states and some of the European nations might consider.

    After all it is the onset of the 90th anniversary–hardly three generations ago–of the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 that essentially carved up the old Ottoman Empire for the Triple Entente. The assumption and belief being the U.S. would remain in splendid Isolation and France, Britain and Russia would defeat the Germans and their ally, Turkey. Apparently they didn’t consider Italy that much of a player, except perhaps as a setting for some interesting Hemingway novels.

    We were out of it then, but of course we can’t be out of it now. But it would be nice to assist from backstage, rather being the public face of a reengineered Middle East. And with France and Britain, along with a goodly portion of the rest of Europe, rapidly being submerged in creeping Sharia law of their Muslim citizens, it’s in their best interests to assume some leadership in that area.

    Bill Jordan

  2. EWRoss says:

    Bill,

    Couldn’t agree with you more, but nothing good is going to happen with Barack Obama in the White House.

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