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THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

How is it that Stalinist North Korea continues to survive into the 21st Century when its communist-sister nations evolved? North Korea, now under Supreme Leader number three, Kim Jong-un, is the dinosaur that won’t go extinct. The answer is that China nurtures and protects North Korea, preferring it the way it is; and until the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) becomes a greater liability to China than an asset, it will continue to exist as a throwback to another era. The goal of U.S. North Korea policy, therefore, should be to hasten that day. (More)

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11 Responses

  1. Reposted from LinkedIn says:

    LinkedIn Group: The Intelligence Community (IC)

    Discussion: THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

    A direct conclusion from the viewpoint of a buffer function of North Korea between China and South Korea including the U.S. forward operating base means: For an unforeseeable time the status quo of nK will stay as it is, as China will have ZERO interest to get in the range of any military eventualities as written above.

    Posted by Ralf R.

  2. Reposted from LinkedIn says:

    LinkedIn Group: The Intelligence Community (IC)

    Discussion: THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

    This excerpt from the article is why in my opinion China mainly continues to support nK.

    “Second, China’s evolution was selective. As its political, economic, and military clout give it the status of an emerging great world power, it continues to look at the DPRK much as it has since the Korean War. North Korea is both an essential buffer state and a useful threat to Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The last thing China wants to see on the Korean Peninsula is a unified, democratic, and prosperous Korea”.

    China only intervened in the Korean War when U.S. forces moved close to the Yalu River. China obviously feared a nK collapse. A collapse of nK besides the flood of refugees that would occur would also bring U.S. influence at China’s very doorstep. The U.S. would then be able to consolidate its control in the Pacific region and have a direct platform to exert even more influence to control access to the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan.

    A U.S. presence in nK would provide the U.S. forward operating bases to counter any renewed China threat to Taiwan. U.S. F-15Es would for instance be within easy range of Beijing and provide additional protection to U.S. carrier battle groups that could operate in the more northern areas of the Yellow Sea.

    As long as China continues to support nK, nK will survive but barely.

    Posted by Jeff

  3. Reposted from LinkedIn says:

    LinkedIn Group: The Heritage Foundation

    Discussion: THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

    After President Harry Truman had removed General Douglas MacArthur, and Congress listened to MacArthur’s address. MacArthur said, (paraphrased) that the policy of police actions, limited warfare, or the no-victory approach (reader’s choice) would someday lead to disaster. How profound! In Viet Nam, America tired of the limited war, Congress cut off funds, and North Viet Nam quickly occupied the South, leaving all our efforts in the trash heaps of history. Some say that, in Korea, there was fear of a nuclear response from the USSR; others say it was unlikely the USSR was yet prepared to mount one. Julius and Ethel Rosenberg passed US nuclear secrets to the USSR and were tried for espionage beginning March 6, 1951. They were executed on June 19, 1953.

    Now, more than 60 years after the beginning of the Korean War, North Korea is many times more dangerous. It may even have, or will have, furnished log-range ballistic missiles to Iran, and eventually become the match to light a Persian Gulf holocaust, and start WWIII. And we have a President who has a problem with the concept of victory! Will America ever awaken to this suicidal foolhardiness?

    Posted by Ronald

  4. China has embraced capitalism, but it hasn’t abandoned Marxism. China’s current philosophy is Marxist capitalism–an economy committed to making money combined with the Marxist idea of thought control. China remains loyal to its Marxist neighbor, North Korea. Furthermore, both countries are part of the Marxist-Islamic Alliance.
    http://www.jochnowitz.net/Essays/ChinaIran.html

  5. Bill Jordan says:

    Good article and good analysis; China would be extremely nervous if the two Koreas united and merged their two extremely large armies. The administration needs to get visionary about China and North Korea; continuing to ignore it will be even more disastrous than a conventional war on the Korean peninsula. North Korea will eventually become the biggest arms and technology supplier to the radical nations and factions of the world. This kind of incremental crisis is harder for the UN and world bodies to react to than actual conflict. the 1993 Argreed On framework was effective up to a degree; at least it allowing inspectors into the country and gaining effective knowledge about their nuclear program, capabilities and direction. State should devise a strategy that would make Pyongyang embarassing to Beijing–a Taiwan type mechanism. The failure to have a stick or a carrot with China vis a vis North Korea is a diplomatic failure that equals Dean Acheson’s omitting South Korea from America’s defense umbrella in his infamous tour d’horizon briefing of U.S. interests in East Asia

  6. Reposted from LinkedIn says:

    LinkedIn Group: The Intelligence Community (IC)

    Discussion: THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

    And another thing. As far as I know, the tripartite 1953 Armistace Agreement between the United Nations on the one hand (led by the United States and other allies), and the Korean Peoples Army of the DPRK in alliance with the Peoples Liberation Army of China, the communist combatant side, is still in effect and technically a state of war still exists although under ceasefire. What in the **hell** then is the UN General Assembly engaging in a “moment of silence” at the death of enemy combantant, the tyrant of North Korea, a proven international criminal and mass murderer, and supreme commander of forces still technically arrayed against the United Nations in the absence of a Peace Treaty. Is a walk out even enough? Was there no action to challenge this when it was brought up by the General Assembly chair? That, combined with a former US President sending a congratulatory to new heriditary dictator Boy-King Kim Jong Un “wishing you success” had to be one of the most reprehensible kowtowing things I have ever witnessed reeking of Neville Chamberlain. “Succes”s at what? Bigger and better protected concentration camps? More effective internal Red Guard-type criticism sessions? A more fortified border with China and along both seas to prevent waves of North Korean refugees and defectors from that hell on earth?

    I would add that not only is the DPRK able to be still propped up 60 years after General MacArthur was going in for the kill — by Beijing, it is also facilitated by the United Nations — ironically which is funded in large part by the United States and ultimately US taxpayers. Hey folks, what’s wrong with this picture? When will we have a President who will assert some power to tighten the noose on this illegitimate regime, nibbling on tossed carrots and allowed to continue for way too long now.

    Posted by Thomas P. (Tom)

  7. Reposted from LinkedIn says:

    LinkedIn Group: The Intelligence Community (IC)

    Discussion: THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

    This demonstrates that the powers to be and the countries that support North Korea for any reason (especially China) will insure they have what they want “a perpetual self-licking ice cream cone” the status quo.

    Posted by Jerry

  8. Homepage says:

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  9. Reposted from LinkedIn says:

    LinkedIn Group: The Intelligence Community (IC)

    Discussion: THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

    I don’t expect the dinosaur to survive much longer. If not under Kim Jong-un’s regime, then under his successor’s. I firmly believe that history repeats itself and we are too quick to ignore the lessons of the past. Hereditary monarchies are an ancient form of government and the 14th-century Muslim scholar, Ibn Khaldun, described how the prestige of the ruling family usually decays in four generations:

    The builder of the family’s glory knows what it cost him to do the work, and he keeps the qualities that created his glory and made it last. [Kim Il-Sung]

    The son who comes after him had personal contact with his father and thus learned those things from him. However, he is inferior to him in this respect, inasmuch as a person who learns things through study is inferior to a person who knows them from practical application. [Kim Jong-il]

    The third generation must be content with imitation and, in particular, with reliance upon tradition. This member is inferior to him of the second generation, inasmuch as a person who relies upon tradition is inferior to a person who exercises judgment. [Kim Jong-un]

    The fourth generation, then, is inferior to the preceding ones in every respect. … For he sees the great respect in which he is held by the people, but he does not know how that respect originated and what the reason for it was. He imagines it is due to his descent and nothing else. [TBD]

    Posted by Vanessa

  10. Reposted from LinkedIn says:

    LinkedIn Group: The Intelligence Community (IC)

    Discussion: THE NORTH KOREA CONUNDRUM: THE DINOSAUR THAT WON’T GO EXTINCT

    Vanessa, I have talked with a N. Korean defector face-to-face. You cannot imagine the indoctrination even the most prominent N. Koreans go through. After his work, he would go home for supper and return to the base for 3 hours of political education. Much of the indoctrination was accomplished by having the students study the writings of Kim Chong Il and others having similar views. Another reason the normal generation transitions probably don’t apply has to do with the power of the military and their desire to keep things the way they are. It’s hard to imagine the control the military exercise over the general public. They were brutal. If a N. Korean help an American serviceman and got caught, they could expect that every man, woman and child in their family would be executed. Lastly, it’s important to understand that the N. Korean military understands that they need to keep things as they are to control any possible refugees problem. It’s also important to understand that portions of their population essentially have nothing and are starving. I sincerely believe the powers to be are committed to do whatever is necessary to keep things as they are. I do expect continued harassment from the north and an occasional incident. Most likely this is done for internal consumption. There is just no way the North can’t know that launching a missile or invading the south would be suicide. The bottom line is that Kim Chong Un is being groomed for leadership and right now he has the support of the North Korean military. The last remaining question is whether or not there is any hope for reunification of the North and South.

    Posted by Jerry

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