Ed's Blog

"Some people know everything, but that's all they know."

PREDICTING THE WAVE: How Big Will Republican Gains Be?

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It’s a common reaction during election campaigns. If your candidate is ahead in the polls, the polls are accurate. If he or she is behind, they’re inaccurate. Most polls tell us Republicans will win big on November 2, gaining as many as 50 to 60 House seats, 7 or 8 Senate seats, and 7 governorships. Some Republican political operatives predict that their party will do even better, picking up 70-plus seats in the House and ten or more seats in the Senate. A few pollsters agree that’s within the realm of possibility, but most estimates are more conservative. We’ll soon know who got it right, but if the higher estimates prove correct here’s the most likely reason why. (More)

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5 Responses

  1. Tom Rumsey says:

    Very good analysis of the situation. Please God, may we prevail.

  2. Ken McGhee says:

    …….and there is always “hopey-changey” to influence the polls

  3. Bob Hoelle says:

    Ed,

    The polls are probably accurate, but this is a strange mid term election year. The tea party is quite vocal, but republicans in general are quitely confident. The real results will happen in the booths. The republicans are being viciously attacked by some of the most graphic campaign ads I have ever seen. They still aren’t willing to realize that their wounds were self inflicted over the past two years. Many political careers were sacrificed for Obama’s agenda. The democrats that were way behind in the polls have even been financally abandoned by their own party to save others

  4. EWRoss says:

    The results are almost all, in and it’s clear that the more reputable pollsters did a good job of modeling turnout and calling the overall and individual races. The moral of the story is, know which pollsters are the good ones and which ones are the bad ones and trust that the good ones know what they are doing. Remember, I didn’t predict that Republicans would do better than expected, only that if they did it would be because the pollsters blew it. They didn’t.

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